NFL Football Betting: Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers

NFL Football Betting:  Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers

This rematch of last year’s NFC Championship Game is easily the biggest of the weekend and likely one that the Packers ‘circled’ on the schedule at the start of training camp. The Packers appeared to be on their way back to the Super Bowl last year as they opened up a 16-0 lead only to lose to Seattle in overtime. Green Bay opened this season with a win/cover at Chicago while the Seahawks were upset in their opening contest as they fell 34-31 to the St. Louis Rams.

There’s a lot of interest on the Green Bay side in this game among not only the betting public but a number of ‘sharp’ players. They (correctly) cite several bad breaks going Seattle’s way during head to head matchups in recent years. Who could forget the ‘Fail Mary’ play in Seattle that put a quick finish to the NFL’s labor dispute with game officials? Revenge is less of a factor in pro sports than in college but if there was any team that had the motivation to lay a beating on an opponent it’s Green Bay versus Seattle.

In addition, Packers backers point out (correctly, once again) that Seattle has been a very slow starting team during the past few years. Seattle is on a 2-9 SU/ATS run in their last eleven September games. This is the type of trend that might not be mere coincidence–good teams often take time to ‘gel’. For whatever reason, this seems to be especially true for teams built on tough defense and physical intimidation. Seattle will be fine come November and December but statistically at least they’ve been vulnerable early in the season.

This is all true–but I’m not buying it in this matchup. For a long time, Seattle was a team that was great at home and lousy on the road. Not so much any more–the Seahawks enter this contest on a run of 11-6 SU/10-7 ATS away from home. More significantly, they’re a perfect 3-0 ATS in their last three spots as an underdog. The ersatz wise guys of the world would whine about the ‘short sample size’ but they’ll be the ones scratching their heads and tearing up their Packers’ tickets at the end of this game.

We’ll take Seattle plus the points. This will be a tough, physical game and that’s how Seattle likes to play.