NFL Football Betting: New England Patriots at Dallas Cowboys

NFL Football Betting:  New England Patriots at Dallas Cowboys

Think the New England Patriots are pissed off? After the NFL’s summer long ‘deflate gate’ campaign against the Pats proved fruitless it appears that Tom Brady and Belichick are on a revenge tour. New England is a perfect 3-0 (2-0-1 ATS) and Brady has thrown 9 TDs to 0 interceptions this season. Things could continue to be really ugly for Patriots opponents on Sunday as they head to Dallas to take on the banged up Cowboys. Dallas started this season with very high hopes before an injury to starting quarterback Tony Romo derailed their plans. They’ve now lost two straight and when the best thing that the media can say about the performance of backup quarterback Brandon Weeden is that it’s ‘better than expected’ there could be trouble ahead.

The Cowboys have brought in veteran Matt Cassell who looks to be the ‘next man up’ for starting quarterback. For now, he’s listed as the backup to Weeden on the depth chart but you can be sure that Cassell will be the starter before long. Unfortunately, the Cowboys could play both at the same time and the Patriots would still have the edge at the position with Brady who is clearly ‘sending a message’ this season and playing as well as he ever has. Dallas also without receiver Dez Bryant and that’s another huge absence. Making matters worse for Dallas is the new found intensity of the Patriots’ pass rush which has produced 13 sacks this season.

At first glance, this looks like a great chance for a contrarian play on the home team. There’s nothing more enticing for a football handicapper than a home team getting more than a touchdown. But when the Patriots are playing like this they’ve got to be viewed differently than a garden variety NFL team. The question that has to be asked when laying points is not whether a team is capable of covering a spread. Instead, the question should focus on a team’s motivation to drop a margin on an opponent. That should be evident here and lest you think that the Patriots might lack motivation in a non-conference matchup keep in mind that they’re 7-2 SU/ATS in their last 9 against the NFC.