Monday Night Football Betting: Kansas City Chiefs at Green Bay Packers

Monday Night Football Betting:  Kansas City Chiefs at Green Bay Packers

These teams have plenty of history against each other. In fact, they played each other in the first ever Super Bowl game. That game was won by the Packers and their iconic head coach Vince Lombardi. It doesn’t seem like the Chiefs have ever forgotten this defeat–they’ve won 7 of the 10 head to head meetings since (7-2-1) including four of the last five both straight up and against the spread.

The first thing that jumps out about this game is that the price sure looks ‘frothy’ given the Packers’ quality of opponent. Assuming that Green Bay has an average home field advantage of 3 1/2 points (you could make a case that it is greater than that) that would make the Packers a 9 1/2 point favorite over the Chiefs on the proverbial ‘neutral field’. That sure seems to be generous. Of course, the Packers are a quintessential ‘public’ team and have cashed a lot of tickets as a favorite in recent years going 16-8 in their last 24 games laying points. The Chiefs have been a decent underdog for their part in all of this, covering 8 of their last 13 getting points. They’ve also been a very competitive road opponent going 12-6 ATS in their last 18 away contests.

In our view, the situational spot also favors Kansas City. The Chiefs are coming off a disappointing loss to the Denver Broncos while the Green Bay Packers are feeling really good about themselves having beaten their arch rivals, the Seattle Seahawks, in their previous game. They’ve got another important NFC road game on deck at San Francisco which means they’re catching a dangerous non-conference opponent in an emotional ‘flat spot’. Kansas City is a very dangerous underdog here and we’ll take the points with the Chiefs.