AFC Wild Card: Chiefs at Colts

AFC Wild Card: Chiefs at Colts

The Andrew Luck led Colts will look to right a wrong from last year’s postseason and come away with a win on Saturday when they face the resurgent Kansas City Chiefs in the first AFC Wild Card matchup. Luck is also looking for his first career playoff touchdown against the same team he beat in Week 16. The Chiefs went from 2-14 to 11-5 due in large part to Coach of the Year candidate Andy Reid, who hasn’t won a playoff game since 2008. Here’s a preview.

Chiefs at Colts (-2.5)

KC is a one-man gang on offense and that man’s name is Jamaal Charles. The dual-threat runner led the league in touchdowns with 19 and amassed 1980 total yards. He was the only Chief to do anything in the first meeting with Indy, and as he goes so goes the offense. Alex Smith was flat out awful on December 22nd, accounting for three turnovers and a meager 153 yards passing. The Chiefs defense was dominant early in the season when they faced a bunch of lesser starters and backup quarterbacks. Since Week 10, only the Redskins have failed to score 23 or more points. OLB Justin Houston’s health is critical; he’s missed five straight games with a dislocated elbow, although he’s on track to play Saturday. Chiefs are 7-1 ATS on the road.

The Colts have won four of five and appear to have shaken their post-Reggie Wayne injury blues. Much maligned offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton has wisely handed the keys to Luck and backed off a run heavy scheme that was going nowhere fast thanks to Trent Richardson’s 3.0 yards per carry average. T.Y. Hilton and Griff Whalen have become reliable targets for Luck, and Donald Brown is finally running like a first-round pick. The Colts defense has been doing it with smoke and mirrors much of the season. They rank 9th in points allowed and boast the NFL sack leader in Robert Mathis, who notched 19.5, including five in his last three starts. If they contain Charles, they will walk away winners. Indy is 5-3 ATS at home.

Maybe KC should play their B team again. All kidding aside, the Colts are playing disciplined, mistake-free ball right now. They win and cover.