College Football Betting: South Florida at Cincinnati

College Football Betting: South Florida at Cincinnati

Four college football betting opportunities are on the board for Friday night and in this preview we’ll take a look at a American Athletic Conference game between South Florida and Cincinnati. On paper, this looks like a fairly even matchup. Cincinnati is 3-3 straight up while South Florida is 3-4 straight up. In conference, South Florida is 2-1 while Cincy is 1-1. Both teams are coming off wins and neither has a potential ‘lookahead’ opponent on deck.

The best thing that can be said about South Florida is that they’re competitive in just about every game. They’re 5-2 against the spread this season failing to cover as a -27 point favorite in their opening game against overmatched West Carolina and as a +2′ point home dog against NC State. They played two very good teams in their last two spots as an underdog covering against East Carolina and Wisconsin. Last week they had little trouble with Tulsa, covering as a -2 favorite in a 38-30 victory. The best news was the 38 point output, the first time USF had put up more than 17 points in a game since the opener against Western Carolina. Much of that is attributed to the return of star wide receiver Andre Davis after a four game absence.

Cincinnati is 2-4 against the spread this season with their only two covers in their opening game against Toledo (a big local rivalry) and last week’s bloodletting against hapless SMU. The win/cover against the flatlining Mustangs is hard to take as more than a neutral. To put it bluntly, Cincinnati’s defense sucks. Their low points against total before the SMU game was 24 points and are ranked #101 in scoring defense. They’re ranked #120 in total defense allowing 524 yards per game. The three weeks before the SMU game Cincy allowed a total of 146 points to Memphis, Miami and Ohio State.

We’ve got an improving South Florida team showing some offensive life against a Cincinnati team that couldn’t stop anyone but SMU. A good pointspread team against a bad pointspread team. That also suggest a team that is undervalued against a team that is overvalued. Throw in the South Florida 8-5 ATS road record since 2012 and double digit points and we’ll take the dog.