College Football Betting: Connecticut at South Florida

College Football Betting:  Connecticut at South Florida

It might not be ‘must see TV’ but Friday night does feature a matchup in the American Athletic Conference as South Florida hosts Connecticut. This is the first conference game for both teams and each side has a record of 1-2 on the year. The South Florida Bulls opened the season with a narrow victory over an overmatched FCS team beating West Carolina by 5 as a -27 point home favorite. They’ve lost two game since straight up going 1-1 against the spread against Maryland and North Carolina State. Connecticut opened the year with a home loss to BYU, a closer than expected win over FCS Stony Brook as a -16′ point home favorite followed by another home loss to Boise State leaving them 0-3 on the year against the spread.

Typically in a matchup between teams of comparable class the points are the play regardless of the venue. In addition, the ‘eye test’ suggests that UConn might have more going for them at this point than South Florida. The Bulls have looked awful on offense averaging only 17 points per game against FBS level competition. Their defeat last week to North Carolina was particularly ugly with the Bulls compiling only 159 yards of total offense while their defense gave up 589 yards to the Wolfpack. Connecticut may have lost both games to FBS opponents this year straight up and against the spread but they a) faced a significantly higher level of opponent and b) didn’t look as helpless as South Florida has.

South Florida has been especially dismal in several relevant pointspread categories. The Bulls are on a 9-17 overall ATS run including runs of 4-12 SU/3-11-1 ATS at home. They’re also on a 3-6 SU/0-8-1 run as a favorite. That suggests a few things and none of them are good–a sputtering offense that can’t cover margins, lethargic efforts against substandard opponents and most problematic, perhaps, that they’re overrated and overvalued by the betting marketplace. To be fair, Connecticut’s ATS numbers are nothing great either but Bob Diaco is in his first year and he’s a former defensive coordinator/linebacker coach at Notre Dame and comes highly touted. There’s at least signs of hope at UConn but not so much at South Florida.