NBA Betting: San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder

NBA Betting:  San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder

The Oklahoma City Thunder are in a pickle as they head home for Game 3 of their best of seven Western Conference Finals series against the San Antonio Spurs. Not only are they down 2-0 they’ve been obliterated in those losses by a combined 52 points. As every NBA fan, pundit and player knows no team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit to win a best of 7 series in the sport which makes this game a ‘must win’ scenario for the Thunder.

Of course ‘must win’ and ‘will win’ are two different things. From a sports betting perspective you’re going to do very well for yourself over the long term by going against teams in ‘must win’ situations. That being said, there are a few things working in favor of the Thunder in this matchup starting with the obvious fact that they’re playing on their home court after opening the series in San Antonio. Oklahoma City has a very good home court record going 38-10 SU/26-21-1 ATS but San Antonio’s road record is almost as good as the Thunder’s home record. Away from home the Spurs are 32-14 SU/26-20 ATS.

Oklahoma City does hold the advantage in head to head play both overall and at home. Overall the Thunder are 11-8 SU/12-6 ATS over the past three seasons and their home court record against San Antonio is especially impressive. At home Oklahoma City has won and covered 8 of the last 9 meetings. That’s impressive no matter how you slice it but as we all know the Spurs are a different team during the regular season when head coach Greg Popovich’s emphasis is ‘managing’ the schedule and trying to make sure that the players are healthy and rested when the postseason begins. There’s good news for Oklahoma City on the personnel front as well–Serge Ibaka is apparently ahead of schedule on his recovery from a shin injury and could play before the end of this series. On paper at least, the Thunder could really use his interior defense and rebounding assuming he’s 100% healthy.

There’s one problem in all of this–the Spurs just look like the better team. Not by a little bit but by a long shot. It never hurts to go against the betting public and they’re on Oklahoma City. We’ll be on San Antonio and all they need to do is win this game outright.