NBA Betting Picks: Miami Heat at San Antonio Spurs

NBA Betting Picks:  Miami Heat at San Antonio Spurs

The NBA playoffs have produced a fairly obvious matchup. There was little doubt that the Miami Heat would advance to the Finals out of the East and particularly after the Indiana Pacers slumped so precipitously in the second half of the season. Out West it was a little less clear but the Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder emerged as the most likely conference representatives all season long. And now the Spurs and Heat will face in a rematch of last year’s NBA Finals with the series beginning Thursday night in San Antonio.

San Antonio is a well oiled machine. Their modus operandi is well known by now–they spend the regular season looking toward the playoffs and head coach Greg Popovich isn’t shy about giving his veterans a night off or limiting their minutes. This serves two valuable functions–it keeps their aging nucleus of stars healthy and rested heading into the playoffs and it gives valuable playing time to younger players who are then well prepared for postseason play. In theory this should produce a less impressive regular season record but that hasn’t really been the case with San Antonio and particularly not this year. The Spurs went 62-20 during the regular season which was the best record in the NBA.

The Miami Heat are–as usual–maddeningly difficult to figure out. They have a tendency to not play up to their ability more often than not during the regular season and that’s started to manifest itself in the playoffs as well. When they ‘turn it on’ they’re almost unbeatable but that sort of mentality is very dangerous. That being said, the Heat have played well during the playoff series even if it doesn’t seem like they’re at 100%. Miami is 12-3 SU/10-5 ATS in the postseason.

In Game 1, however, we’re going to go with San Antonio. Miami often struggles in Game 1 of a series and if that happens here the Spurs will dominate. San Antonio has won and covered 3 of the last 5 meetings on their home court and gave the Heat fits during the playoffs last year coming maddeningly close to winning. San Antonio is a short priced favorite for the series and that’s likely based on home court advantage alone. This series could easily go a full seven games but we look for San Antonio to start off with a victory.