MLB Baseball Betting: Arizona Diamondbacks at Atlanta Braves

MLB Baseball Betting:  Arizona Diamondbacks at Atlanta Braves

Strange times for both of these teams. The Arizona Diamondbacks were left dead in the water at the All Star Break and expected to vie for the worst record in the NL West. Instead, they started winning games and are now in third place just eight games out of the division lead–thanks in large part to the mediocre play of division leading Los Angeles and second place San Francisco. The Atlanta Braves, meanwhile, are going nowhere–an unusual position for a team accustomed to going on a long winning run in the ‘dog days’ of summer en route to postseason play. The Braves are 10.5 games out of the NL East lead and 14.5 games out of a wildcard berth. Their undoing has been their play on the road–they’re good at home (31-23 +11 units at Turner Field) but a woeful 21-40 on the road. That will loom large after the season is over–if they were playing .500 ball away from home they’d be right in the thick of things at the top of the division.

Strange pricing on this game as well. The Braves have won 6 of the last 7 meetings against the Diamondbacks at Turner Field but the two teams have similar records this season. That’s why it’s odd to see the D-bax posted as -150 road favorites. Arizona hasn’t been bad on the road (just a few games under .500 for a +1.8 unit profit) but the reason for this pricing is the Braves almost comical ineptitude against left handed pitching. Atlanta’s W/L record against southpaws–9-13 -2 units isn’t that bad (though it’s definitely not good)–but their offensive output of 2.7 runs per game and a .217 batting average is awful. Arizona’s Pat Corbin is a journeyman lefthander at best but the Braves could very well make him look like Sandy Koufax with their putrid offense.

Kind of a tough call from a handicapping standpoint. Tough to resist Atlanta getting this much money at home but we have to be mindful of their struggles against left handers. They beat the Diamondbacks and southpaw Robbie Ray last night but they had Julio Teheran working for them. Tonight they’ve got Mike Foltynewicz and with an ERA of over 5 he can’t be counted on to hold the Diamondbacks to two runs. Still, we’ll hold our nose and take the price.